Telco 2015 five telling years, four future scenarios Franco

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Telco 2015 five telling years, four future scenarios Franco

Contents

A decade of structural change in Telecom
Forces shaping the future of Telecom
Uncertainties and Scenarios for Telco 2015
Scenario Realization, Financials and Imperatives
Survivor Consolidation
Generative Bazaar
Clash of Giants
Generative Bazaar
Summary and Conclusions

A decade of structural change in Telecom


Over the past decade global communications penetration and in mobile cellular telephony specifically has been phenomenal



Source: International Telecommunications Union (ITU) ICT Statistics Database available at http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/icteye/Indicators/Indicators.aspx . 2009 figures are
estimated published in ITU, “The world in 2009: ICT Facts and Figures”; ITU Geneva 2009, available at http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/material/Telecom09

However, the key engines for growth - mobile cellular telephony and emerging markets expansion - have begun to stall


Source : IDATE, in "World Telecom Service Market", 2008 Edition - January 2009, revision in July 2009; IBM Institute for Business Value (IBV) Analysis

There is a long-term decline in fixed telephony (PSTN) lines and revenues.


Source: IDATE, National Regulatory Authorities'’ Reports, Federal Communications Commission, “Trends in Telephone Service”, August 2008, Ofcom, UK, “Communications Market
Report”, August 2009 IBM Institute for Business Value (IBV) Analysis

Fixed-mobile substitution continues.


Source: IDATE, National Regulatory Authorities'’ Reports, Federal Communications Commission, “Trends in Telephone Service”, August 2008, Ofcom, UK, “Communications Market
Report”, August 2009 IBM Institute for Business Value (IBV) Analysis.

Dial-up access is in decline as connectivity shifts to broadband fuelled an expansion of xDSL, cable modem and FTTx.

Source: PwC Media and Entertainment Outlook 2009-2013; IBM Institute for Business Value (IBV)

In markets with high mobile penetration, such as Europe, revenue growth and ARPU are declining.


Source: Ronald Montagne “Telcos’ views of openness”, IDATE, October 2009

























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