Science and Future Technology

Telco 2015 five telling years, four future scenarios Franco Contents A decade of structural change in Telecom Forces shaping the future of Telecom Uncertainties and Scenarios for Telco 2015 Scenario Realization, Financials and Imperatives Survivor Consolidation Generative Bazaar Clash of Giants Generative Bazaar Summary and Conclusions A decade of structural change in Telecom Over the past decade global communications penetration and in mobile cellular telephony specifically has been phenomenal Source: International Telecommunications Union (ITU) ICT Statistics Database available at http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/icteye/Indicators/Indicators.aspx . 2009 figures are estimated published in ITU, “The world in 2009: ICT Facts and Figures”; ITU Geneva 2009, available at http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/material/Telecom09 However, the key engines for growth - mobile cellular telephony and  emerging markets expansion - have begun to stall

Fast and ultra-fast internet access   The broadband market grew in 2011 but the growth rate continued to slow down. The fixed broadband penetration rate in January 2012 was 27.7% of the population, just 1.3 percentage points up from 26.4% in 2011.  Despite the slower growth, the EU penetration rate exceeded that of Japan in 2011 for the first time. The difference with the US is 0.5 percentage points behind only.  Speeds of fixed broadband lines increased significantly in 2011 w ith almost 50% of all lines providing download speeds of 10 Mbps and above. l But the take up of fast and ultra-fast broadband, i.e. 30 Mbps and 100 Mbps, is still low with just 7.2% and 1.3% (respectively) of all fixed lines providing those speeds.  In the second half of 2011, the number of new broadband lines b ased on xDSL was almost equal to the number of new lines based on alternative technologies sold both by new entrants and incumbents, indicating a shift towards o